No doubt you’ve felt the ongoing panic these days over the coronavirus. Pandemics don’t come along often and this might be a good one. Maybe good enough to change the world. Remember, nothing brings out human instincts like a natural disaster—both awful and awesome.
In a military war you can see the bullets coming. Physical evidence lies before us and we know the enemy. But with a virus it’s like fighting a ghost, you’re guarding against somebody else’s air. And this leads to some pretty weird behaviour. People you’ve known for years start looking at you like a potential disease. So yes, this could be bad but let’s put it in perspective.
Medically speaking, only five things can happen. You’ll either:
- miss the virus
- get a mild case
- get a bad case, which makes you sick at home
- get a serious case, which takes you to the hospital—and you survive
- get a serious case, which takes you to the hospital—and you don’t
That’s it. Only five things. So the question becomes: what are my odds? What are the odds for my family and friends? And how about a bunch of people I’ve never met?
Statistics usually deal with the average person but in this case it depends upon your health. So for our example we’ll use the average person in good health, a group which is stronger (i.e., the young), and the more vulnerable. According to unofficial estimates, here are the figures.
Getting it
Maximum spread of this virus is 70%. That’s the absolute max. And since our average person is washing their hands and practicing self-distancing, this percentage gets cut in half.
| Average | Strong | Vulnerable | |
| Getting it | Less than 50% | More than 50% | Less than 20% |
The young come in contact with more people so their chances are higher. Those susceptible will obviously take extra precaution so their chances are lower. And if everyone does exactly what the government is asking, the risks go down for all. (Did you hear that kids?)
But if you get it, your odds look like this:
| Average | Strong | Vulnerable | |
| Mild case | 80% | 95% | 50% |
| Sick at home | 14% | 4% | 34% |
| Hospital and live | 6% | 1% | 16% |
| Hospital and not | 1 in 20 of those who go to the hospital | 1 in 50 of those who go to the hospital | 1 in 5 of those who go to the hospital |
The good news is average people have a 94% chance of getting off easy. The bad news is our vulnerable have a serious chance of getting very sick. They could get a mild case, but the odds of not surviving a bad infection are high.
2X flu
What do we know about this virus? It’s kinda like the flu. More contagious and stronger, but still like the flu. On the other side we have citizen participation, worldwide research and technology, and an awesome healthcare system. This will be a fair fight.
And no matter what happens the situation will yield a universal and Canadian mortality rate. For Canada, let’s guess .03% (with a decimal point). Now .03 doesn’t sound high but that’s still a lot of people, around 10,000. So the idea of slowing this thing down is right. Everyone deserves a proper shot at healthcare. But for the sake of numbers, 10,000 is also 2X the flu.
Panic
Every year the flu kills a large number of people. Last year in the US it was 80,000 and the WHO says globally it’s 290,000-650,000. Can you imagine if we tracked it? Old timers sitting by TV sets watching the numbers rise? Not good for a variety of reasons. Mental health is one, but more importantly panic can bring on health problems caused by anxiety like heart conditions. Not good during a time when we need beds. And if you assume this won’t crest until mid-April, we have 3-4 more weeks. So you’re not doing anyone any favours by freaking out grandma.
What’s best for our current system and the overall outcome is for everyone to remain calm. That being said, panic also serves a purpose. Sometimes you have to scare people into complying and that job has mostly been done.
So is this situation real? Yes. Should we follow government guidelines? Absolutely. But adjust your panic accordingly. That’s what’s best for everyone. I’ll bet my scientific reputation on it.