No doubt you’re still hearing about the US election and why Donald Trump won. Though much of what’s being said is emotional, there are pragmatic factors Canadians can use to navigate through the confusion. Like why were the polls wrong?
Polling
The Electoral College awards so many presidential votes to each state. Certain states almost always vote a certain way (e.g., Texas goes republican while California likes democrats). There can be exceptions but 37 states typically work this way—and in this election, all voted as expected. (Giving Hillary a slight lead). This leaves 13 states where the action actually happens—called battleground states.
Because of this situation, national polls are never the best indicator. Forecasting Electoral College votes based on state polls is much better. And you could see this on some websites but even they left out two important factors.
- What typically happens to the category “other”
- Who typically shows up to vote
Libertarians and Greens were polling high throughout the summer (10-12%) but in the end they got only four points (3% – Libertarian, 1% – Green). Support falling away from “other” candidates is typical in presidential elections. Based on ideology, we know libertarians fall right and greens fall left. Using the consistent 3:1 split between them, 9% Libertarian actually means 6% republican and 3% libertarian, and 3% Green means 2% democrat and only 1% green. So this election was close all along and they should have predicted better numbers for Trump.
Same thing when it comes to who shows up to vote. The angry and wanting change always line up in greater numbers than those happy with how it is. We saw this with Barack Obama in 2008. This time, the angry and wanting change folk were siding with Trump. This too could have been added to the polls.
Proper polling ignores national data and focuses on Electoral College votes, state by state. Then gets adjusted for “other candidate fallback” and “emotional show-up.” Obviously this wasn’t being done, so it was like the kids who calculated mortgage risk before the crash of ’08—they didn’t really understand the numbers. This was always a much closer race than what was being reported.
Make America Great Again
I think the biggest challenge non-Americans had was comprehending Trump’s slogan. Who was he talking to and why keep referring to the past? The answer lies in his strategy. Every election has two components: economic and social. Economically, Trump targeted 5-6 battleground states. Socially, he appealed to all country conservatives.
Only 13 states mattered and some got hammered by globalization. So economically, they wished to return to the past. When Trump said “Make America Great Again,” he wasn’t speaking to those in California. He was talking to people in particular areas. Then socially, there was a much deeper message. One that appealed to social conservatives who didn’t want change—social change. This is something Canadians have difficulty understanding. One guy told me, “Heck, we just got used to watching gay broadcasters.”
Social change among conservatives is not a short term affair. They need time to digest. And the recent changes brought about over the past 8 years, especially gay marriage, has left many screaming for stop.
The civil rights act passed in 1964, and they’re still talking about it. Liberals say full female rights still haven’t been attained and gay marriage is currently ripping American churches apart. Now you want to put LTGB urinals into every stall. Are you kidding? It takes generations for things like these to incorporate into rural life—and yes, there is a difference between city slickers and country folk. But American liberals never seem to extend their values of respect and tolerance to their own people. So Donald said it would stop.
Hillary
Trump’s raw strategy gave him a one in three chance of winning. When Hillary blended with Bernie, those odds jumped to over 40%. Described as a centre-right politician, Hillary’s platform had nothing in it like free education or a $15/hour national minimum wage. Issues like these were only added to consolidate with Bernie supporters and it proved to be her demise.
NDP-style liberalism doesn’t work in a conservative country unless you’re the voice of change. So while Donald was in her backyard picking democrats, she couldn’t get past his fence.
And Hillary also played it safe—famously deciding to go high where he went low. Again, this classy approach works with everyday liberals but when Donald is constantly pounding on you, you have to forcibly object. Margaret Thatcher didn’t become Britain’s PM by playing the woman card. She bared her knuckles and rolled around in mud for principles.
Summary
A lot of people were fooled by this election because no one put forward a solid argument why Trump could win. Michael Moore was close but he didn’t take into account the social part, which was huge. Here’s what happened:
- There were 13 battleground states.
- Economically, Trump targeted 5-6 of them (e.g., Ohio, Michigan).
- Socially, he appealed to country conservatives by promoting no more social change.
- Hillary got messed up by Bernie and was forced into choosing between far-left or centre-right. She chose far-left, which alienated loads of potential supporters.
- Hillary played it safe and this probably played a factor. She also got killed by the price hikes in Obamacare.
- The numbers were consistently misreported because they didn’t take into account “other party fallback” or “emotional voter turnout.”
Donald Trump always had a realistic chance. But what about the horrible things he said? and Megan Kelly? and all the people he offended? Most of them live in cities, located in democrat states. Their votes didn’t really count. It was rural women who made this choice and they took Don’s package over his faults. He was continually shown with his beautiful family and they bought it—he couldn’t be all that bad.
There’s no question Donald Trump is an ass. And that Americans will face the consequences of having just elected Henry the VIIIth. But this wasn’t a perfect storm. It was a clash of ideals that had to happen. Bernie’s movement needed to be exposed—because that’s what’s coming. And liberals needed to learn that conservatives aren’t opposed to social change—they just need it done slowly.
But I still can’t believe it.
Note: The same day Arizona voted for Trump they passed Proposition 206 to increase minimum wage from $8 to $12/hour, over a four year period. This is much different than $15/hour, tomorrow.