In order to appreciate the current political situation in the US, you need to know a little about American politics.
Independents
On Larry King Live, former president Bill Clinton, explained how presidential elections work. He said that before any election starts, 45% of the people are voting left, 45% are voting right, and only 10% make the actual decision. This means that 90% of the population are staunch ideologues who cast their ballot regardless of candidates or issues.
Proof for his statement can be found in the 2008 election. Sexy democrat, Barack Obama faced off against old republican, John McCain, who was considered a political lightweight. In the midst of a disastrous war and an economic meltdown (presided over by a republican president), there had never been a better time to lean left. But in the end, the results were:
Obama 53%, McCain 46%, Other 1%.
The media called it a landslide for Obama because he got 8% of the independent vote while McCain only managed to get 1.
Third-party candidates
Clinton’s view becomes even more interesting when you look at presidential elections that involve third-party candidates. In 1992, famed businessman, Ross Perot, ran for office against republican president, George H. Bush, and democratic nominee, Bill Clinton. Perot’s platform was a rejuvenated form of conservatism that appealed to many on the right. The final results were:
Clinton 43%, Bush, 37%, Perot, 19%, Other 1%.
Assuming moderates were evenly split, Perot attracted away at least 13% of the republican base, thereby causing a democratic victory.
Then consider the election of 2000, when democrat Al Gore ran against George W. That election featured notorious consumer advocate, Ralph Nader, as a third-party candidate. His reputation and platform appealed strongly to the left. The final results were:
Bush 47.9%, Gore 48.4%, and Nader 2.7%.
There’s no doubt that if Nader hadn’t run, Gore would have won the election.
GOP
Before getting to Donald, let’s talk about the Republican Party.
The article, Left is for Liberal, details the differences between the two major parties. In part, it describes the conservative ideology as being pro-business and in favour of lower taxation for less government service. But there are degrees to the degree. Meaning you have “small c” or moderate conservatives, and those of the far right.
During the last presidential nomination, Newt Gingrich explained that republican primaries usually come down to a contest between a more conservative candidate, like himself, and a moderate, like Mitt Romney. And history shows that in the greater majority of cases, the moderate wins. But after the inception of the Tea Party in 2008, the Republican Party has been shifting further and further to the far right.
The Tea Party’s isn’t your typical ideological objection to the strong carrying the weak. It’s a deeper philosophic argument that openly touts 1700s-style conservatism.
Shortly after its formation, 1996 republican presidential nominee, Bob Dole, came out publicly to warn against their policies. And Bernie Sanders, in an October 2014 interview with Bill Moyers, said the Tea Party has been enormously successful, stating “they’ve taken a centre-right party and made it a right-wing extremist party.”
Moderates are being pushed aside by dirty tea party tricks. Like, incumbents being challenged by well-funded Tea Party candidates for re-nomination—which is crazy. For example, in 2010, Utah’s three term senator, Bob Bennett, was defeated in his primary by Tea Party candidate (and Brigham Young graduate), Mike Lee.
In short, pundits say the only way to stop this super-right charge is for “small c” conservatives to boycott their own party. Moderates have to stand up to the extremists and threaten to join hands with the democrats. (So this hard right-wing thing is a problem.)
Xenophobia
Xenophobia is the irrational dislike of people from other countries.
In today’s presidential world, no serious candidate would ever base any part of their campaign on something like this. Why? Because democrats don’t like it, independents don’t like it, and “small c” conservatives don’t like it. The best you can do with a platform of this nature is attract maybe 25% of the vote. Certainly no way to win a presidential race.
So why would any serious candidate kick off his or her campaign with a large reference to xenophobia? That’s what Donald Trump did. And that’s why, immediately after his initial remarks about Mexico sending us their criminals and rapists, seasoned columnists started to smell a fish.
They contrived a conspiracy theory that went something like this: Donald starts off as a republican, splits off into a third-party candidate, appeals to the xenophobic wackos, takes 5-10% of the vote, and Hillary cruises to the White House.
They later supported this theory with additional facts like: “Trump is really a democrat” and “he’s personal friends with the Clintons.” And then provided numerous examples of his being for the left.
The Donald
Okay, so what do we really know about Trump? He’s rich and probably a narcissist.
If you ever had to cast a person to play the part of the above conspiracist, Donald would be it. He’s definitely an attention seeker who, at best guess, is politically aligned somewhere between a moderate and a democrat.
In the words of Zeus, Socrates, and some other Italian guy, you never really know the reason why, but my sincerest suspicion is that Donald is operating from the good. I truly believe his intentions are to face down the threat of extremism and give the Tea Party a swift kick in the pants. And though no conspiracy theory can ever be reliably proved, the strategy of using xenophobia as a defining issue was brilliant. No other matter could have better exposed the ugly underbelly of the far-right movement and forced moderates into making a choice.
In the 1980s, after the Pope and Britain’s royal family, the most popular person alive was Muhammad Ali. In the 1990s it was Michael Jackson, and during the first decade of this century—Tiger Woods. I believe Donald will soon be awarded this title (so yes, there’s something in it for him).
Political extremism, on either wing, is bad because it’s mainly about manipulative minority rule, and we should never have that. I applaud Trump for taking the lead on this issue and wish him success. Because, like Metropolis could only call upon Clark Kent to battle the villains of his day, we have only “the Donald” to champion this fight. God bless America and God bless Donald Trump.
Then again, it’s just a theory.