Tag: covid

Passports

Funny how few of us can still do elementary school math. Don’t believe me? How about a test? Let’s assume the province of Alberta would like to make this covid thing disappear. Pretty good objective. But how would they do it? Probably involves using some math. Let’s start with assumptions.

  • Alberta has a population of 4.5 million
  • Herd immunity, the point where the virus stops travelling, is 75%
  • Natural (unbridled) contagion rate is 40% per year
  • Total population infected as of May, 2021 is 12%
  • 5 actual cases = 1 recorded case
  • 7,500 actual cases (non-vaccinated) = 12 people in ICU
  • 7,500 actual cases (vaccinated) = 1 person in ICU
  • 70% double-vaccination rate

That’s all you need to know to figure this out. Population is easy because it’s on Wikipedia. Herd immunity was told to us at the start. The 40% contagion rate can be found by looking at the US (33% as of May 2021, with some lockdowns). Canada’s May, 2021 rate was provided by Jason Kenney on Twitter, May 12th (and makes sense considering we locked down much more than the States). 5 cases to 1 regarding actual to recorded was provided by Alberta antibody tests back in June, 2020. (It’s been adjusted based on who and how many get tested.) ICU rates for vaccinated and non-vaccinated have been provided by a reliable source and can be proven by a look at the data. And the 70% double-vax rate is found on the Alberta website. So these are the parameters. What’s a province to do?

Math

First we must calculate how many people have already had it:

4.5M X (12% + 4% to bring us to Sept 1st) = 720,000

Then figure out how many more to arrive at herd immunity:

(4.5M X 75%) – 720,000 = 2,655,000

If we let this virus run wild, how long will it take to reach the above number:

(2,6M X 40% = 1.1M the first year) + (1.5M X 35% = 525,000 the second year) + (1M X 30% = 300,000 the third year) + (700,000 X 25% = 175,000 the fourth year) = 2.1M. So we’re short 500,000 after 4 more years.

Number of ICU beds required for the first year:

(1.1M X 70% X 1 in 7,500 = 102) + (1.1M X 30% X 12 in 7500 = 528) = 630 ICU beds

Number of ICU beds required for the first year if everyone was vaccinated:

(1.1M X 100% X 1 in 7,500 = 146 ICU beds

In terms of ICU, Alberta has only 200 beds. That’s all we staff and the amount that’s usually good. This quantity can rise to 250 in special situations but the system is designed for 200. ICU is used for accidents, real life emergencies, and people coming out of surgery. Accommodating the extra 500 for those who remain unvaccinated puts an obvious strain on the system, especially when they come in waves (e.g., 90 in the past two weeks). Overloading ICU then forces government into lockdowns or some other restrictive measure. And you know, people are getting sick of it.

If missing the shot, the odds of an infected person requiring ICU is 12 in 7500. That’s pretty slim. But once you consider that almost everyone will be getting this, and we have to let it run wild at a rate of 100,000 per month, it’s not unreasonable for healthcare professionals to be pushing the vax. As of today, if every person had the dose this drama would be over.

Without sufficient vaccination rates, covid will be with us another four years, and I don’t know many who can handle the opening and closing much longer. It’s bonkers. If you watch US news, you know the fight over freedom. My body, my choice. But those particular states have way more ICU capacity than us. For example, adjusting Texas population to Alberta, we would have over 1,000 units. And if Alberta had that many spaces, we wouldn’t be talking. That’s why the US has been letting this run wild for a long time. As of now, they’re 40-45% through. More than half way. But in Alberta we have only 200 beds.

Summary

Health officials know exactly what they’re doing. It’s their job. Casualties created by virus are not the responsibility of government but maintaining a dependable healthcare system is. And they need you to understand that combatting this crisis isn’t about deaths, it’s about ICU.

Officials have already determined that herd immunity must be achieved whether by vaccine or anti-bodies. Yes, vaccines all but eliminate the damage but they don’t stop the spread. So it’s really up to you. The RCMP won’t be coming to your door to force you into a clinic but if we don’t get sufficient numbers vaccinated, this event could drag on for years. That’s why they’re implementing passports. Big rulers want this over. (And so do you.)

Bottom line: getting the vaccine in Canada isn’t about emotions or freedom, it’s about practicality. Americans have their own fight.

Note: Obviously figures presented are rough estimates but hopefully you get the point. Individual chances for the unvaccinated are remote but cumulatively they’re clogging the system. Modern governments won’t leave our sick waiting in the parking lot, whether it’s another covid patient or a 10-year-old with asthma. So we’ll continue opening and closing around hospital capacity, which cannot be changed.

Schools

Now that everyone has become a master of medical statistics due to this pandemic, I’d like to provide a few more. Alberta just released its results from antibody tests conducted in May. As of May 20th: 36,000 Albertans have had the virus, under 7,000 were reported (meaning 20% felt ill enough to be checked) and under 200 people have died, average age 84. 

Pushing these numbers further you see that 4 out of 5 people barely noticed they had it, and very few have died–primarily through pneumonia, which is how many of our elderly pass away. Those who die of old age usually have multiple conditions. One could have diabetes, COPD, poor kidneys, liver problems, or a weak heart. Pneumonia itself is rarely the demise, it’s its effect on other organs that usually takes you down. 

Anyway, pretend you’re the premier being presented with these figures. What would you do? The ongoing quasi-lockdown? 36,000 is almost 1% of Albertans so at max it’s 20,000 people. But with viruses everybody doesn’t get one. The real max is only 60-70% because that’s what’s called herd immunity. Viruses need a host to live in. And as infected hosts build antibodies this bad boy has less of a chance to move on. (If I cough in the face of 10 virgin people, potentially all ten could get it. But if a bunch already have the antibodies, there’s a much smaller chance. That’s why the fire burns wild at the start. Tons of virgins. But according to medical statisticians, at 60-70% all viruses peter out. And this could take 100 years.)

Anyway, it gets more complicated because today’s experts only budget for the first 12-18 months. After that they figure help will arrive and ill effects drastically reduce. The high-end percentage used in this case was 20%*. That’s what Canada used in its worst-case scenario when calculating initial models. But a more reasonable number is 10%*. That’s more probable as to what will happen. So it becomes 2,000 Albertans, average age 84, and many people die from multiple conditions. 

At best you’re saving 1,000 lives. Couple this with the economic and psychological cost of what’s going on and ask yourself if it’s worth it? There’s no question people are hurting out there and we can’t live on government aid forever. 

One more statistic: these requirements that cities are imposing for mandatory masks and social distancing will be with us another full year. Yes, a full year. At best, Canada will see a vaccine by July 2021*. And of course, it could be later.

Schools

Children suffer by not being allowed back in school. They’ve already missed 3½ months and then it was summer holiday. To ask them to sit out another full year would be harmful. 

But we’re afraid these little guys will be spreaders? That’s why they’re not allowed to play with their friends? They could get sick and give it to me? Well, I had pneumonia when I was 18 and thought it was only bronchitis. My organs were good. (Even now they’re still good.) People in decent physical health should not be worried about this virus, let alone feel terrified. And I hope the majority of those considered vulnerable support kids going back to school. Even better, I hope they lift the restrictions placed on the go-back programs because children need to play, they need to be in class, and they naturally need to get sick. In the end, it’s the vulnerable who will grant them permission.

Note: Sweden’s kids never left and Germany’s went back on June 15th, for two weeks. Listen to this podcast.

Inflation

Understanding economics is different from learning other trades. For example, take machining or dentistry. The knowledge in these areas gets acquired and then passed along through generations. But with economics it’s often figured out on the fly. That’s because conditions in this field change. Take inflation.

For the past 50 years central bankers have focused on this issue. Previously, their mandate was to control inflation and encourage employment—both at the same time. But during the reality of the 1970s, bankers were forced into making a choice. Faced with the conundrum of high inflation and not enough jobs, Milton Friedman claimed the two could never be satisfied at once. He said the concern for inflation must always come first and that’s what central bankers did. They shifted focus.

Two levers

Big banks started managing inflation by using two levers: control interest and print money. When things look good keep rates low, but once inflation rears its ugly head, rates go back up. Then when the economy is suffering, push rates down to provide stimulus. That’s how they saw rates. The second lever involved putting money in and out of the system (by printing and destroying). 

Together these levers worked well up until the crash of ‘08, which was a big one. Central banks reacted by lowering interest rates and increasing their part in world money supply from $46 to $69 trillion. Yes, they created 23 trillion dollars in just ten years. Traditionalists expected bigtime inflation to follow since more money was now chasing the same number of goods but that didn’t happen. We experienced only regular inflation (because it’s easy to make more goods). 

More importantly, over the past few months of 2019 central banks stopped using the interest lever. They figured inflation could now be controlled by simply putting money in and out of the system. This way rates could remain low and government debt would be manageable for the foreseeable future. (What some call, kicking the can down the road.)

Modern Monetary Theory

Then we caught Covid and a whole whack of new debt has been issued. What to do? Well bankers are pondering a new idea. This time, instead of using either of the old levers, they’ll be using taxation. You see the only concern with lots of money in the system is inflation. But what if we could control inflation another way? Here’s the plan.

Imagine if GST floated between 1% and 29. When it’s 29, will you be buying a new car? Probably not. But when it’s at 1%, everything goes on sale. Under this new program government can jack up or down the economy without constraining the money supply. This way we can continue to sustain enormous amounts of debt. It’s like redefining money’s purpose. Sure, money will still facilitate the exchange of services and goods, but in the macro sense it will no longer be part of controlling inflation. And that’s a major change (until the next new theory).