Now that everyone has become a master of medical statistics due to this pandemic, I’d like to provide a few more. Alberta just released its results from antibody tests conducted in May. As of May 20th: 36,000 Albertans have had the virus, under 7,000 were reported (meaning 20% felt ill enough to be checked) and under 200 people have died, average age 84.
Pushing these numbers further you see that 4 out of 5 people barely noticed they had it, and very few have died–primarily through pneumonia, which is how many of our elderly pass away. Those who die of old age usually have multiple conditions. One could have diabetes, COPD, poor kidneys, liver problems, or a weak heart. Pneumonia itself is rarely the demise, it’s its effect on other organs that usually takes you down.
Anyway, pretend you’re the premier being presented with these figures. What would you do? The ongoing quasi-lockdown? 36,000 is almost 1% of Albertans so at max it’s 20,000 people. But with viruses everybody doesn’t get one. The real max is only 60-70% because that’s what’s called herd immunity. Viruses need a host to live in. And as infected hosts build antibodies this bad boy has less of a chance to move on. (If I cough in the face of 10 virgin people, potentially all ten could get it. But if a bunch already have the antibodies, there’s a much smaller chance. That’s why the fire burns wild at the start. Tons of virgins. But according to medical statisticians, at 60-70% all viruses peter out. And this could take 100 years.)
Anyway, it gets more complicated because today’s experts only budget for the first 12-18 months. After that they figure help will arrive and ill effects drastically reduce. The high-end percentage used in this case was 20%*. That’s what Canada used in its worst-case scenario when calculating initial models. But a more reasonable number is 10%*. That’s more probable as to what will happen. So it becomes 2,000 Albertans, average age 84, and many people die from multiple conditions.
At best you’re saving 1,000 lives. Couple this with the economic and psychological cost of what’s going on and ask yourself if it’s worth it? There’s no question people are hurting out there and we can’t live on government aid forever.
One more statistic: these requirements that cities are imposing for mandatory masks and social distancing will be with us another full year. Yes, a full year. At best, Canada will see a vaccine by July 2021*. And of course, it could be later.
Schools
Children suffer by not being allowed back in school. They’ve already missed 3½ months and then it was summer holiday. To ask them to sit out another full year would be harmful.
But we’re afraid these little guys will be spreaders? That’s why they’re not allowed to play with their friends? They could get sick and give it to me? Well, I had pneumonia when I was 18 and thought it was only bronchitis. My organs were good. (Even now they’re still good.) People in decent physical health should not be worried about this virus, let alone feel terrified. And I hope the majority of those considered vulnerable support kids going back to school. Even better, I hope they lift the restrictions placed on the go-back programs because children need to play, they need to be in class, and they naturally need to get sick. In the end, it’s the vulnerable who will grant them permission.
Note: Sweden’s kids never left and Germany’s went back on June 15th, for two weeks. Listen to this podcast.